عنوان مقاله [English]
Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of macro-political, economic and financial risk regimes as transfer variables based on the International Index of International Risk Guidance (ICRG) on the impact of per capita real Gross domestic product (GDP), life expectancy, unemployment rate, inflation rate, school enrolement (education) rate and urbanization degree on the life insurance demand.
Methodology: This research is based on the theory of expected utility in the uncertainty of von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) developed by Yary (1965) and then Lewis (1989). It will use the Panel Smooth Threshold Regression Model (PSTR) using three different logit transfer functions for the Middle East countries in the period of 1990-2017.
Finding: The threshold in the model with political, economic and financial risk was 73.72, 30.00 and 29.2, respectively. Also, the transfer speed between two regimes was estimated at 60.07, 0.3685, and 0.049 in all three models. The highest transmission speed was related to political risk, which led to the failure of the Logit Transmission curve and the three-dimensional procedure. The lowest transfer rate is related to financial risk, which led to a very low curvature of the logit transfer function.
Conclusion: The results of the three models estimation showed that real interest rate does not have a significant effect, which can be due to underdevelopment of financial market, interference in the money market and banking system, and the determination of interest rate in the selected countries. In a less risky rigim, life insurance demand sensebility is lower in inflation rate and life insurance is recognized as an asset with long-term returns. Per capita real GDP and life expectancy rate also have a threshold effect on all three different logit transfer functions. In a less risky political and financial regime, the life insurance demand is more sensitive to urbanization rate. School enrolement rate in a less risky rigim also has a greater impact on life insurance demand.
JEL Classification: O16, C23, G22, I13.