تحلیل اثر بیمۀ زلزله در کاهش آثار مخرب زلزله در رشد اقتصادی: با رویکرد ‌پویایی‌شناسی سیستم (مطالعۀ موردی شهر تهران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو دکتری اقتصاد. دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.ایران

2 استادیار دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد. گروه اقتصاد. ایران. m.behname@um.ac.ir

3 استاد دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد. گروه اقتصاد. ایران

4 استادیار دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد. گروه اقتصاد. ایران

10.22056/jir.2020.104654

چکیده

< p>هدف: بروز بلایای طبیعی می‌توانند آثار مخربی در سرمایه‌های فیزیکی و نیروی انسانی کشورها داشته باشند. لذا استفاده از روش‌های مدیریت ریسک امری ضروری است. هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی اثرگذاری بیمۀ زلزله در کاهش آثار مخرب زلزله در رشد اقتصادی از طریق تأمین مالی خسارات و الزام بیمه‌گذاران برای کاهش ریسک است. به این منظور، آثار وقوع زلزلۀ احتمالی در گسل ری و یا گسل شمال تهران در رشد اقتصادی درون‌زای کشور ایران برای یک دورۀ 40 ساله مدل‌سازی شده است. ابتدای دوره سال 1390 و وقوع زلزله در سال هشتم (1398) در نظر‌گرفته شده است. سپس آثار استفاده از روش بیمه، با فرض به‌کارگیری سیاست‌های تشویقی و تعیین نرخ ‌حق‌بیمۀ متناسب با ریسک، در کاهش آثار مخرب زلزله در رشد اقتصادی بررسی شده‌اند.
روش‌شناسی: در این پژوهش، آثار وقوع زلزله احتمالیِ تهران در رشد اقتصادی ایران با روش ‌پویایی‌شناسی سیستم مدل‌سازی شده است. این روش با بررسی پویای روابط علّی و معلولی، کانال‌های اثرگذاری زلزله در رشد اقتصادی را شناسایی می‌کند و اثر بیمۀ زلزله برای کاهش آثار مخرب زمین‌لرزه در رشد اقتصادی ‌پیش‌بینی می‌شود.
یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که در صورت وجود صندوق بیمۀ زلزله، عمدۀ خسارات از محل وجوه دریافتی از ‌بیمه‌گذاران جبران خواهد شد. مزیت دیگر استفاده از بیمه‌نامۀ زلزله، الزام بیمه‌گذاران به رعایت آیین‌نامه‌های لرزه‌ای ساختمان و در نتیجه کاهش ریسک فروریزش ساختمان‌ها است.
نتیجه‌گیری: در صورت استفاده از روش بیمه، سرعت بازسازی و جبران خسارت افزایش خواهد یافت. لذا پیشنهاد می‌شود صندوق بیمۀ همگانی زلزله ایجاد شود و صندوق بخشی از سرمایه‌های خود را تحت پوشش بیمۀ اتکایی خارجی قرار دهد. همچنین با در نظر گرفتن میزان ریسک فروریزش ساختمان‌ها در تعیین مبلغ ‌حق‌بیمه، آثار مخرب زلزله در سرمایه‌های فیزیکی به‌میزان 525600 میلیارد ریال کاهش و رشد اقتصادی به‌میزان 62100 میلیارد ریال بهبود می‌یابد.
طبقه بندی موضوعی:  O400,Q54,G22,C630

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

An analysis of the impact of earthquake insurance on reducing the earthquake destructive effects on economic growth: Using system dynamics approach (Case Study: Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mitra seyedzadeh 1
  • Mehdi Behname 2
  • Mohhamad Hosein Mahdavi Adeli 3
  • Taghi Ebrabimi Salari 4
1 Phd Student of Economics. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. mitra_seyedzadeh@yahoo.com
2 Assistant professor of Economics and Administrative sciences.Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. m.behname@um.ac.ir
3 Professor of Economics and Administrative sciences.Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
4 Assistant professor of Economics and Administrative sciences.Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
چکیده [English]

< p >Objective: Natural disasters have destructive effects on the countries’ physical and human capitals. Hence, it is necessary to use risk management techniques. The purpose of this study is to analysis the impact of earthquake insurance on reducing the earthquake destructive effects on economic growth through financing the destruction and forcing the insureds to reduce risk. Therefore, the effects of possible earthquakes in the Ray fault or Tehran north fault on Iran economic growth for 40 years is simulated. The year 2012 was assumed as the beginning and the possible earthquake occurrence was predicted in the eighth year (2020). Then, the effects of using insurance techniques for risk management on reducing the damaging effects of earthquakes on economic growth have been analyzed.
Method: The effects of probable earthquake in Tehran on Iran economic growth is simulated by system dynamics method. This method provides the possibility of comprehensive analysis of the insurance earthquake effect on the reduction of the destructive earthquake impacts on national capital, and identifies the earthquake impact channels on economic growth by dynamically examining causal relationships, and Iran economic growth changes by earthquake predicts in the long run.
Finding: The findings show that in the event of an earthquake in the Rey fault, the physical capitals of 2400100 billion rails, 647800 humans and 203480 billion gross domestic product will decrease by 2051. Therefore, earthquake risk management is necessary to reduce these effects. If there is no earthquake insurance, only part of the damages will be compensated by the government and international organizations. Thus, the government''s development budget will be spent on post-earthquake reconstruction and it will hit the country''s economy. However, if there is earthquake insurance fund, most of the losses will offset by the funds received from the insureds and foreign reinsurers will required to pay damages. Another advantage of using earthquake insurance is to create conditions to reduce the damages scope by the insureds. Results suggest that insurer required to comply with the insured with the country''s seismic regulations by applying incentive and risk-based pricing policies. Therefore, buildings collapse risk and amount of earthquake damage will be reduced.
Conclusion: The speed of reconstruction and compensation will increase in case of application of insurance technique in earthquake risk management. Therefore, a general earthquake insurance fund should be created. Observing the risk dispersion principle is important for the insurers. The fund covers part of its funds with foreign reinsurance. Part of potential losses incurred in Iran will be compensated through foreign insurers, capital will be rebuilt and the country''s economic growth will be improved. The results recommend that the fund considers buildings collapse risk and the country''s seismic regulations compliance to determine the amount of premium. Thus, the devastating effects of the earthquake on physical assets will be decreased by 525,600 billion Rials and economic growth will be improved by 62100 billion Rials by creating a public earthquake insurance fund and obliging the insured to observe the Iran seismic regulations.
ClassificationJEL: Q54, G22, C630, O400


کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Earthquake insurance
  • earthquake
  • system dynamics
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